Changing demographic rates

Approach

We can calculate trends in demographic rates (survival, fecundity) for this dataset, using a framework similar to that described in the PFMC Working Group reports.

Survival

Figure 1. Estimated survival rates for 20-year old males and females in the SRKW population. Ribbons represent 95% CIs.

Fecundity

Figure 2. Estimated fecundity rates for 20-year females in the SRKW population. Ribbons represent 95% CIs.

Table 1. Estimated time-varying survival rates for 20-year old female and male killer whales from the SRKW population. The ‘lo’ and ‘hi’ values represent 95% confidence intervals.

year	sexF1M2	age	Sex	survival	lo	hi
1976	1	20	Female	0.989	0.977	0.995
1977	1	20	Female	0.989	0.977	0.995
1978	1	20	Female	0.989	0.978	0.995
1979	1	20	Female	0.989	0.978	0.994
1980	1	20	Female	0.989	0.978	0.994
1981	1	20	Female	0.989	0.979	0.994
1982	1	20	Female	0.989	0.979	0.994
1983	1	20	Female	0.988	0.979	0.994
1984	1	20	Female	0.988	0.979	0.994
1985	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1986	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1987	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1988	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1989	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1990	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1991	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1992	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1993	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1994	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1995	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1996	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1997	1	20	Female	0.988	0.980	0.993
1998	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
1999	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2000	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2001	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2002	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2003	1	20	Female	0.988	0.981	0.993
2004	1	20	Female	0.989	0.982	0.993
2005	1	20	Female	0.989	0.982	0.993
2006	1	20	Female	0.989	0.982	0.993
2007	1	20	Female	0.989	0.982	0.993
2008	1	20	Female	0.989	0.982	0.993
2009	1	20	Female	0.989	0.983	0.993
2010	1	20	Female	0.989	0.983	0.994
2011	1	20	Female	0.990	0.983	0.994
2012	1	20	Female	0.990	0.983	0.994
2013	1	20	Female	0.990	0.983	0.994
2014	1	20	Female	0.990	0.983	0.994
2015	1	20	Female	0.990	0.984	0.994
2016	1	20	Female	0.990	0.984	0.994
2017	1	20	Female	0.991	0.984	0.995
2018	1	20	Female	0.991	0.984	0.995
2019	1	20	Female	0.991	0.984	0.995
2020	1	20	Female	0.991	0.984	0.995
2021	1	20	Female	0.991	0.984	0.995
2022	1	20	Female	0.992	0.984	0.996
2023	1	20	Female	0.992	0.984	0.996
2024	1	20	Female	0.992	0.984	0.996
1976	2	20	Male	0.968	0.934	0.985
1977	2	20	Male	0.968	0.936	0.984
1978	2	20	Male	0.968	0.937	0.984
1979	2	20	Male	0.967	0.938	0.983
1980	2	20	Male	0.967	0.939	0.982
1981	2	20	Male	0.967	0.940	0.982
1982	2	20	Male	0.966	0.941	0.981
1983	2	20	Male	0.966	0.941	0.981
1984	2	20	Male	0.966	0.942	0.980
1985	2	20	Male	0.966	0.942	0.980
1986	2	20	Male	0.965	0.943	0.979
1987	2	20	Male	0.965	0.943	0.979
1988	2	20	Male	0.965	0.944	0.979
1989	2	20	Male	0.965	0.944	0.978
1990	2	20	Male	0.965	0.944	0.978
1991	2	20	Male	0.965	0.945	0.978
1992	2	20	Male	0.965	0.945	0.977
1993	2	20	Male	0.965	0.945	0.977
1994	2	20	Male	0.965	0.946	0.977
1995	2	20	Male	0.965	0.946	0.977
1996	2	20	Male	0.965	0.946	0.977
1997	2	20	Male	0.965	0.947	0.977
1998	2	20	Male	0.965	0.947	0.977
1999	2	20	Male	0.965	0.948	0.977
2000	2	20	Male	0.965	0.948	0.977
2001	2	20	Male	0.965	0.949	0.977
2002	2	20	Male	0.966	0.949	0.977
2003	2	20	Male	0.966	0.950	0.977
2004	2	20	Male	0.966	0.950	0.977
2005	2	20	Male	0.967	0.951	0.977
2006	2	20	Male	0.967	0.952	0.978
2007	2	20	Male	0.967	0.952	0.978
2008	2	20	Male	0.968	0.953	0.978
2009	2	20	Male	0.968	0.954	0.978
2010	2	20	Male	0.969	0.954	0.979
2011	2	20	Male	0.969	0.955	0.979
2012	2	20	Male	0.970	0.955	0.980
2013	2	20	Male	0.970	0.956	0.980
2014	2	20	Male	0.971	0.956	0.980
2015	2	20	Male	0.971	0.957	0.981
2016	2	20	Male	0.972	0.957	0.981
2017	2	20	Male	0.972	0.958	0.982
2018	2	20	Male	0.973	0.958	0.983
2019	2	20	Male	0.973	0.958	0.983
2020	2	20	Male	0.974	0.958	0.984
2021	2	20	Male	0.975	0.958	0.985
2022	2	20	Male	0.975	0.958	0.985
2023	2	20	Male	0.976	0.958	0.986
2024	2	20	Male	0.976	0.958	0.987

Table 2. Estimated time-varying fecundity rates for 20-year old female killer whales from the SRKW population. The ‘lo’ and ‘hi’ values represent 95% confidence intervals.

year	age	fecundity	lo	hi
1976	20	0.215	0.106	0.386
1977	20	0.214	0.111	0.372
1978	20	0.213	0.116	0.359
1979	20	0.212	0.120	0.347
1980	20	0.211	0.125	0.336
1981	20	0.211	0.129	0.325
1982	20	0.210	0.133	0.315
1983	20	0.209	0.137	0.307
1984	20	0.209	0.140	0.299
1985	20	0.208	0.143	0.292
1986	20	0.207	0.146	0.286
1987	20	0.207	0.149	0.280
1988	20	0.206	0.151	0.275
1989	20	0.205	0.152	0.271
1990	20	0.204	0.154	0.267
1991	20	0.203	0.154	0.263
1992	20	0.202	0.155	0.260
1993	20	0.201	0.155	0.257
1994	20	0.200	0.154	0.254
1995	20	0.198	0.154	0.252
1996	20	0.197	0.153	0.249
1997	20	0.195	0.152	0.247
1998	20	0.194	0.151	0.245
1999	20	0.192	0.149	0.243
2000	20	0.190	0.148	0.241
2001	20	0.188	0.146	0.239
2002	20	0.186	0.144	0.237
2003	20	0.184	0.142	0.234
2004	20	0.181	0.140	0.232
2005	20	0.178	0.137	0.229
2006	20	0.175	0.134	0.225
2007	20	0.172	0.131	0.222
2008	20	0.168	0.128	0.218
2009	20	0.164	0.125	0.214
2010	20	0.160	0.121	0.209
2011	20	0.156	0.117	0.205
2012	20	0.151	0.113	0.200
2013	20	0.147	0.108	0.195
2014	20	0.142	0.104	0.191
2015	20	0.137	0.099	0.186
2016	20	0.132	0.094	0.182
2017	20	0.127	0.089	0.178
2018	20	0.122	0.084	0.174
2019	20	0.118	0.079	0.171
2020	20	0.113	0.074	0.168
2021	20	0.109	0.069	0.166
2022	20	0.104	0.065	0.164
2023	20	0.100	0.060	0.163
2024	20	0.096	0.055	0.162